{"id":176,"date":"2025-07-24T23:30:55","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T05:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elcontemporaneo.mx\/?p=176"},"modified":"2025-07-24T23:32:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T05:32:23","slug":"dinero-artificial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/2025\/07\/24\/dinero-artificial\/","title":{"rendered":"Dinero Artificial"},"content":{"rendered":"

Banxico debe resistir la tentaci\u00f3n de recortar tasas en un contexto de inflaci\u00f3n subyacente elevada<\/h3>\n

La desaceleraci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n general a 3.55\u202f% anual<\/strong> en la primera quincena de julio, por debajo del pron\u00f3stico del mercado, podr\u00eda parecer una se\u00f1al verde para empezar a reducir la tasa pol\u00edtica de Banxico. Sin embargo, seg\u00fan Jonathan Heath, subgobernador del banco central, ese descenso no es motivo suficiente para flexibilizar la pol\u00edtica monetaria. La raz\u00f3n: la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente se mantiene obstinadamente por encima del 4.2\u202f%<\/strong>, lejos del objetivo del 3\u202f% \u00b11\u202f% que persigue la autoridad.<\/span><\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n no subyacente \u2014aquella impulsada por precios vol\u00e1tiles de alimentos y combustibles\u2014 ha ca\u00eddo, pero no por acci\u00f3n de Banxico. Esa variaci\u00f3n conduce a se\u00f1ales enga\u00f1osas: una lectura general favorable que no refleja la verdadera trayectoria de mediano plazo. Heath acierta al apuntar que la subyacente es el componente m\u00e1s sensible a la pol\u00edtica monetaria y debe ser el foco principal para evaluar cualquier relajaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el hecho de que Heath fuera el \u00fanico de los miembros de la Junta de Gobierno que vot\u00f3 por mantener la tasa de referencia en 8\u202f% \u2014mientras los otros apoyaron un cuarto recorte consecutivo\u2014 subraya la necesidad de prudencia ante se\u00f1ales mixtas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aunque la mayor\u00eda del mercado anticipa un descenso adicional de 25 puntos base en la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n del 7 de agosto, esta expectativa podr\u00eda estar basada en el malentendido de que toda la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 en baja. En realidad, es la subyacente la que a\u00fan exige atenci\u00f3n y tiempo para confirmar una tendencia clara a la baja.<\/span><\/p>\n

En ese sentido, mantener la tasa en la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n no ser\u00eda solo una postura cautelosa, sino responsable. Accionar con base en una ca\u00edda parcial y vol\u00e1til puede terminar deshaciendo avances en el control de precios. Es preferible dar tiempo al tiempo y esperar se\u00f1ales de consolidaci\u00f3n en la variable m\u00e1s relevante.<\/p>\n

En este escenario, donde la inflaci\u00f3n general cede impulsada por factores transitorios \u2014pero la subyacente sigue estancada\u2014 Banxico debe privilegiar la estabilidad y resistir la presi\u00f3n de recortar tasas prematuramente. Solo una reducci\u00f3n bien fundamentada y sostenida \u2014no coyuntural\u2014 puede preservar la credibilidad del banco central y garantizar resultados consistentes en materia de inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Banxico debe resistir la tentaci\u00f3n de recortar tasas en un contexto de inflaci\u00f3n subyacente elevada La desaceleraci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n general a 3.55\u202f% anual en la primera quincena de julio, por debajo del pron\u00f3stico del mercado, podr\u00eda parecer una se\u00f1al verde para empezar a reducir la tasa pol\u00edtica de Banxico. Sin embargo, seg\u00fan Jonathan Heath, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"columnista":[],"class_list":["post-176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-columnas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=176"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":177,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176\/revisions\/177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=176"},{"taxonomy":"columnista","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/staging1n.elcontemporaneo.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/columnista?post=176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}